REGIONAL SHORT–TERM FORECAST OF DEBRIS FLOW INITIATION FOR GLACIATED HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONE OF THE CAUCASUS — IJEGE
 
 
You are here: Focus and scope Issues from 2005 to 2017 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards "Mitigation, Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment" Topic 8 - Prediction and Assessment of Debris Flow Hazards REGIONAL SHORT–TERM FORECAST OF DEBRIS FLOW INITIATION FOR GLACIATED HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONE OF THE CAUCASUS
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REGIONAL SHORT–TERM FORECAST OF DEBRIS FLOW INITIATION FOR GLACIATED HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONE OF THE CAUCASUS



Abstract:
We present a methodology for generalised regional- scale forecast of debris flow activity for territories with uniform conditions of debris flows formation. In the high mountain region of the Central Caucasus the trend of activation of debris flows processes is connected with the degradation of glaciers. For the development of debris flows forecast combined physical– statistical models based on long-term observation series are shown to be optimal. The authors develop an original and simple method of debris flows forecast for high mountains region with glaciation. The method is based on predictors readily available in practice, namely daily temperatures and precipitation. The method of compilation of a short- term debris flows forecast for high mountain zone of the Central Caucasus is proposed and recommendations for its practical usage are presented.

Authors:
I.B. Seinova - Centre for Engineering Geodynamics and Monitoring, Moscow
Y.B. Andreev - M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Moscow, Leninskie Gory, 1
I.N. Krylenko - M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Moscow, Leninskie Gory, 1
S.S. Chernomorets - Centre for Engineering Geodynamics and Monitoring, Moscow
Keywords
Forecast, debris flows, physical-statistical modelling, Central Caucasus.
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