AN EMPIRICAL METHOD TO FORECAST THE EFFECT OF STORM INTENSITY ON SHALLOW LANDSLIDE ABUNDANCE — IJEGE
 
 
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AN EMPIRICAL METHOD TO FORECAST THE EFFECT OF STORM INTENSITY ON SHALLOW LANDSLIDE ABUNDANCE



Abstract:
We hypothesize that the number of shallow landslides a storm triggers in a landscape increases with rainfall intensity, duration and the number of unstable model cells for a given shallow landslide susceptibility model of that landscape. For selected areas in California, USA, we use digital maps of historic shallow landslides with adjacent rainfall records to construct a relation between rainfall intensity and the fraction of unstable model cells that actually failed in historic storms. We find that this fraction increases as a power law with the 6-hour rainfall intensity for sites in southern California. We use this relation to forecast shallow landslide abundance for a dynamic numerical simulation storm for California, representing the most extreme historic storms known to have impacted the state.

Authors:
Jonathan D. Stock - U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA, 94025, USA
Dino Bellugi - University of California, Department of Earth & Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, USA
Keywords
Landslide susceptibility, storm intensity, landslide frequency.
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